So, I came third in a tournament with the fishermen. Played Shark and beat Masons, Brewers, Alchemists and got beaten by Morticians (Obolus) in the finals. The mortician player is one of the two players I regularly face in my meta so it felt good and it was an awesome game. I came home from the tournament with a newfound confidence, ready to take on the Butchers once again! Maybe I even try Corsair?

I am since 0-5 against the Blood Thirsty Bastards and the confidence I felt before is gone like yesterdays breakfast. I played Corsair every time. Some games where close on paper but none felt even close.

My opponent runs Fillet and Shank who comes screaming over the board and kills my guys in their deployment zone. As soon as I bring a guy back from taken out status its easy picking for Shank.  I tried getting an early start on the killing and dragged in Rage into corsair and punched his teeth in and left him on 1 box first round, easily winning initiative for 2nd turn. Then everything turns around, Fillet and Shank gets to where they are supposed to be and kills my face.

So I’m back to Shark, back to time-walking, back to Gut and String. So, I started trying to work out the odds for making certain plays, like “Gut and String” on certain players. Like, say, as an example, Fillet (no reason…). She is 5-0 defensive stats. I then need 3 hits on 6 dice, whats the likelihood of that happening? After some calculation I realized the chances are poor and I wondered how to improve them. Bonus time off course and then what are the chances with 7 dice? Why aren’t there a diagram for this.

2 hours of wasted work later I got it, the likelihood-spread-sheet-o-meter (might have to work on the name a bit):

lklyhood

On the x-axis you got DEF – ARM and on the y-axis the number of hits you are aiming for. In each cell you have 9 sub-cells representing the number of dice (4-12) and then the fractional likelihood of making the required number of hits. Usefull? I don’t know. All I know is that it will help me when I whine about my dice tomorrow evening: “you know? I had a 78% chance of making that roll, man! And I failed 2 times in a row, you know how unlikely that is!!??”.